El modelo español de consumo sectorial de electricidad.

Enric Valor, Francisco J. Climent, Vicente Meneu, Vicente Caselles

Resumen


The electricity generation and its management need a precise knowledge of the climate effects on the energy consumption pattern. In a previous work we analysed the meteorological factors influencing the electricity load in Spain, and the air temperature appeared as the most significant. The analysis of the electricity demand in different economic sectors, which is the objective of the present paper, goes further into this study. For the analysis, monthly data of electricity sales in the residential, industrial and other user sectors have been used. Different regression models have been set up using as explicative variables the heating and cooling degree-months, considering the seasonality effects, and correcting the autocorrelation problems of the residuals. The obtained models show explicative powers between 82% and 92%, and errors of estimate in the electricity sales ranging from ±1% to ±4%, depending on the considered sector

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